And so continues my college football preview for 2007. Where was I?
Mountain West
MWC Champ- BYU
Sleeper- Wyoming
Everyone is talking about TCU as a non-BCS team that might crash the BCS bowls this year. There is no doubt that TCU will be good. A great defense led by bookend pass rushers Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake will, no doubt, be dominant. I just don’t think there’s enough there on offense to allow this team to reach the top. The loss of QB Jeff Ballard will be the biggest hole for the Horned Frogs. There is also no receiver that stands out. Aaron Brown is a very good running back, so look for TCU to hand the ball off a lot and use the play-action pass off of their ground game. Would I be surprised if TCU wins the Mountain West? No. Would I be surprised if TCU upsets Texas? No. But I still think BYU will end the season on top. Max Hall shouldn’t have too much trouble replacing John Beck at quarterback, even if he doesn’t perform as well as Beck did. They have a big, bruising running back in Fui Vakapuna who should pound through the holes opened up by a veteran offensive line. Wide receiver will be an interesting position. The team is looking forward to having Austin Collie back, who was their top receiver as a freshman, but took two-years off for a church mission (so it goes at Brigham Young University). The defense should be strong and improved from last year. BYU was fourth in the nation last year in turnover margin. They also have one of the best coaches in the conference in Bronco Mendenhall. The key could be that they get TCU at home, as that game could decide the Mountain West champ.
My sleeper for the MWC is Wyoming. They just missed out on a bowl game last year, and four of their six losses were by a touchdown or less (two of which were in overtime). Quarterback Karsten Sween proved he has what it takes as a freshman last season (when he started 7 games), and he should be improved with some experience under his belt. The group of wide receivers has some experience and should be more than adequate. Running back Wynel Seldon had a down year last year, but he has shown in the past that he can put up some big numbers. With Seldon returning and depth at the position, the running game should be solid. The big question is whether a line replacing three starters will mesh and perform well. The defense lost some key players on the line and at the safety position, but the cornerback position is solid and the Cowboys have one of the best linebacking groups in the conference. Wyoming probably won’t be able to push BYU and TCU, but they certainly could beat one of those teams and play a huge roll in who wins the conference. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Wyoming sneak ahead of New Mexico, and even Utah, in the conference standings.
WAC
WAC Champ- Hawaii
Sleeper- San Jose State
This is a tough conference to pick. It’s hard to go against Boise State and all the success they’ve had, but I just think this is Hawaii’s year…or maybe I’m just buying into the hype too much. Colt Brennan is a Heisman candidate, and after shattering quarterback records last season, it will be interesting to see what he can do this year. Maybe he is the definition of a “system QB,” but as long as he’s playing in that system at Hawaii, you can’t argue with the results. The Rainbow Warriors (seriously, what a great team name) are stacked at wide receiver. Brennan will throw to a number of very talented receivers, including Jason Rivers, Davone Bess, and Ryan Grice-Mullen. The offense is definitely not a concern for Hawaii. The question is whether the defense will be good enough to win a conference championship. With a new defensive coordinator, Hawaii will be led by an experienced group of linebackers who should the be strength of the defense. There is also hope for the secondary, who struggled with inexperience last year but now return three starters. The bottom line? Hawaii will put up numbers. They get Boise State at home on the island, and that is why I think they will edge out the Broncos for the conference title.
With the top two teams slugging it out and getting national recognition, watch out for San Jose State. Adam Trafalis is a returning senior starter at quarterback, and Yonus Davis is a 1,000-yard rusher who averaged a crazy 6.3 yards per carry last year. The defense should be strong, led by linebacker Matt Castelo and an All-American caliber cornerback in Dwight Lowery (he had nine picks last year).
Mid-American
MAC East- Ohio
MAC West- Central Michigan
MAC Champ- Central Michigan
Sleeper- Miami (OH)
I’m not going to lie, I have an affinity for the MAC. It may not get credit on a national level, but I’ve watched it week in and week out, and I can attest that there is a lot of talent here.
This conference is always wide-open, but the West is definitely the class of the MAC, and that’s why I see Central Michigan winning the MAC title game. CMU is led by quarterback Dan LeFevour, who had a great freshman season and should be better this year (I say this a lot, don’t I?). Running back Ontario Sneed is nothing if not inconsistent, but he definitely has shown flashes of talent, and if he can put it all together the Chippewa offense could be very dangerous. The offensive line, despite the loss of Joe Staley to the draft, should be very strong. The defense will definitely miss defensive end and sack-master Daniel Bazuin, but there are enough pieces left to keep the ship afloat. Western Michigan could push Central Michigan for the West crown.
The East is a hard division to get a handle on. Ohio University won the division last year, and I look for them to do the same this year…if they can get solid play from the quarterback. As long as a quarterback can step up and manage the game, the offense should be alright, with All-MAC running back Kalvin McRae taking handoffs. The defense is built around a strong front four and a reliable secondary, while they look for linebackers to step up. Without any other East team really pressing them, and a favorable schedule that keeps the toughest MAC games in Athens, OH, look for the Bobcats to repeat as East champs.
My sleeper for the MAC is my Miami Redhawks. Last year was a mess, as the Redhawks struggled to a 2-10 record. However, the talent is most definitely there. Injuries devastated Miami last year, claiming their number one running back in Brandon Murphy and much of their offensive line. The thinned out o-line couldn’t protect the quarterback or open up holes for a pathetic running game, and the offense stalled. Things look to be different this year. Being able to see this team in fall and spring practice, I can say the pass protection is there this year. Look for quarterback Mike Kokal to have a breakout year. He has all the tools, but until now he didn’t have the protection. The running game can’t get any worse, and while it didn’t jump out in practice, it’s hard to judge a ground attack from scrimmages. Brandon Murphy is back to head up a deeper and possibly more talented backfield. He’s rushed for 1,000 yards before, and looks to return to that level. The loss of Ryne Robinson, possibly the best wide receiver and kick returner in Miami history, will be felt, but this year’s group of receivers may be the most talented the school has seen. Dustin Woods and Sean McVay lead the crowd, and watch for redshirt freshman Armand Robinson to have a big year. Redshirt freshman Eugene Harris and true freshman Chris Givens have raised eybrows as well, and both will contribute. On the defensive side of the ball, despite some losses, the unit could be better than last year. The secondary is deep and talented, although young. The front four need to get more pressure on the quarterback, but the potential is there. Defensive end Travis Craven could have a coming out party. The linebacking unit is the strength of the defensive, where they return starters Clayton Mullins and Lombardi Award candidate Joey Hudson. They also have improved depth at the position. Miami is a team that could win the MAC East, although a third or fourth place finish is more likely.
Ball State is another team to watch. QB Nate Davis is only a sophomore, but might already be the best quarterback in the conference. Tight end Darius Hill is under-the-radar but could be one of the best at his position in the country.
Sun Belt
Sun Belt Champ- Troy
Sleeper- Louisiana-Monroe
The Sun Belt is another conference where worst-to-first is not out of the question. However, I think Troy will repeat as conference champs. Quarterback Omar Haugabook is the leader of the team and was Conference Player of the Year last season. Running back Kenny Cattouse also returns. The offensive line is a question, but the skill positions should take care of business of the line comes together. On defense the Trojans are fast, balanced, and experienced. The fact that Troy is strong both offensively and defensively is what makes them my favorite to win the Sun Belt conference. You don’t see a lot of balanced teams in this league.
My sleeper, Louisiana-Monroe, is one of those unbalanced teams. They had the Sun Belt’s best offense last season, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t be true again. They are strong at running back, quarterback, and receiver, all of which will operate around the league’s best offensive line. The problem is the defense. They already ranked last in the Sun Belt in defense last year, and lost two of their best players. If the defense can come together and improve at all, it could be enough to really make some waves in the Sun Belt. If not, the Warhawks will be left, once again, trying to outscore all of their opponents.
That covers all the conferences- the ones you care about and the ones you don’t care about. Coming up either tonight or tomorrow will be my individual player picks/previews, so you know who to keep your eye on.
Until then, enjoy the opening night of the college football season. I’ll be doing so on the campus of Ball State University.
